Toward a new paradigm in open economy modeling: where do we stand?

This paper provides a selective, up-to-date survey of the recent, fast-growing literature on new open economy macroeconomics. Lucio Sarno begins with a review of the seminal paper in this literature, describing the baseline model proposed therein. He then covers a number of variants and generalizations of the baseline model involving the allowance for nominal rigidities, pricing to market, alternative preference specifications, and alternative financial markets structures. The author also discusses the recent stochastic extensions of these models, especially focusing on their implications for the link between risk and exchange rates and on new directions for the relevant literature.Econometric models ; Macroeconomics

Mean reversion in stock index futures markets: a nonlinear analysis

Several stylized theoretical models of futures basis behavior under nonzero transactions costs predict nonlinear mean reversion of the futures basis towards its equilibrium value. Nonlinearly mean-reverting models are employed to characterize the basis of the SandP 500 and the FTSE 100 indices over the post-1987 crash period, capturing empirically these theoretical predictions and examining the view that the degree of mean reversion in the basis is a function of the size of the deviation from equilibrium. The estimated half lives of basis shocks, obtained using Monte Carlo integration methods, suggest that for smaller shocks to the basis level the basis displays substantial persistence, while for larger shocks the basis exhibits highly nonlinear mean reversion towards its equilibrium value. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc

Real exchange rate dynamics in transition economies : a nonlinear analysis

We examine the behavior of the real exchange rates of nine transition economies during the 1990s. We propose an empirical model rationalized on the basis of standard economic models in the tradition of Mundell-Fleming-Dornbusch and Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson, allowing explicitly for real interest rate differentials and (implicitly) for productivity differentials to have an impact on real exchange rate equilibrium and employing nonlinear modeling techniques that are consistent with recently developed economic theories and observed regularities. Using a nonlinear multivariate generalization of the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition applied to our models, we also identify the permanent and temporary components of these real exchange rates implied by our estimates. The results have a natural interpretation and clear policy implications

How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?

For many years after the seminal work of the Meese and Rogoff (1983a), conventional wisdom held that exchange rates could not be forecast from monetary fundamentals. Monetary models of exchange rate determination were generally unable to beat even a naive no-change model in out-of-sample forecasting. More recently, the use of sophisticated econometric techniques, panel data, and long spans of data has convinced some researchers (Mark and Sul, 2001) that monetary models can forecast a small, but statistically significant part of the variation in exchange rates. Others remain skeptical, however (Rapach and Wohar, 2001b; Faust, Rogers, and Wright, 2001). It remains a puzzle why even the most supportive studies find such a small predictable component to exchange rates. This article reviews the literature on forecasting exchange rates with monetary fundamentals and speculates as to why it remains so difficult.Foreign exchange rates ; Forecasting

The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: an empirical investigation

This article examines the dynamic relationship between two key U.S. money market interest rates - the federal funds rate and the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Using daily data over the period 1974 to 1999, we find a long-run relationship between these two rates that is remarkably stable across monetary policy regimes of interest rate and monetary aggregate targeting. Employing a non-linear asymmetric vector equilibrium correction model, which is novel in this context, we find that most of the adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium occurs through the federal funds rates. In turn, there is strong evidence for the existence of significant asymmetries and nonlinearities in interest rate dynamics that have implications for the conventional view of interest rate behavior.Interest rates ; Arbitrage ; Treasury bills

The efficient market hypothesis and identification in structural VARs

Structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models are commonly used to investigate the effect of structural shocks on economic variables. The identifying restrictions imposed in many of these exercises have been criticized in the literature. This paper extends this literature by showing that, if the SVAR includes one or more variables that are efficient in the strong form of the efficient market hypothesis, the identifying restrictions frequently imposed in SVARs cannot be satisfied. The authors argue that this analysis will likely apply to VARs that include variables that are consistent with weaker forms of the efficient market hypothesis, especially when the data are measured at the monthly or quarterly frequencies, as is frequently the case.Macroeconomics ; Econometric models

The efficient market hypothesis and identification in structural VARs

Structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models are commonly used to investigate the effect of structural shocks on economic variables. The identifying restrictions imposed in many of these exercises have been criticized in the literature. This paper extends this literature by showing that if the SVAR includes one or more variables that are efficient in the strong form of the efficient market hypothesis, the identifying restrictions frequently imposed in SVARs cannot be satisfied. We argue that our analysis will likely apply to VARs that include variables that are consistent with the weaker form of the efficient market hypothesis, especially when the data are measured at the monthly or quarterly frequencies, as is frequently the case.Macroeconomics ; Econometric models